AP Preseason Rankings: How Reliable Are They Really?

Examining the annual ritual of sorting college football’s top teams before the first kickoff

Every August, the Associated Press releases its preseason Top 25 rankings—a snapshot of expectations and hype. These lists ignite debates, fuel optimism, and sometimes irk fans whose teams are left out or underrated. But how much do these preseason rankings actually tell us about the season ahead?

I recently revisited a popular Reddit post from r/CFB that sparked a fascinating conversation about the accuracy and impact of AP preseason polls. It got me thinking more critically about the weight we give these early rankings.

  1. Texas
  2. Penn State
  3. Ohio State
  4. Clemson
  5. Georgia
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Oregon
  8. Alabama
  9. LSU
  10. Miami
  11. Arizona State
  12. Illinois
  13. South Carolina
  14. Michigan
  15. Florida
  16. SMU
  17. Kansas State
  18. Oklahoma
  19. Texas A&M
  20. Indiana
  21. Ole Miss
  22. Iowa State
  23. Texas Tech
  24. Tennessee
  25. Boise State

The AP Preseason Rankings: Tradition Meets Controversy

The AP preseason poll has been a staple in college football for decades, featuring sportswriters’ predictions on who will dominate the season. The rankings list teams like the perennial powerhouses—Alabama, Clemson, Georgia—near the top, based on recruiting classes, returning starters, and last season’s results. For example, the current 2025 preseason AP Top 5 reads Texas, Penn St, Ohio State, Clemson, and Georgia, reflecting programs expected to vie for championships.

But immediately, criticisms arise: these rankings sometimes reinforce a status quo. Teams that have historically performed well start high, while emerging teams struggle for recognition. This “preseason bias” can shape narratives and even influence in-season perceptions.

When Preseason Ranks Miss the Mark

Conversely, teams outside the traditional spotlight often prove the preseason poll wrong. Take Northern Illinois, a program from the Mid-American Conference often overlooked in favor of power conference teams. The Huskies frequently outperform expectations, exemplifying how rankings can underestimate emerging powerhouses.

In 2012, for example, Northern Illinois went from a modest preseason ranking to an Orange Bowl appearance—far beyond what most predictions suggested. Similarly, in recent years, teams like Utah and Cincinnati have demonstrated that the AP preseason poll doesn’t always foresee national contenders accurately.

These surprises underline that the AP preseason rankings, while informative, are no crystal ball. They reflect expectations but not guaranteed outcomes.

The Case for Preseason Polls

Supporters argue preseason rankings help set the tone for the season, offering fans and analysts a reference point. They generate excitement and media coverage and can motivate teams seeded lower to prove doubters wrong.

Moreover, since the AP poll derives from a collective of experienced sportswriters, it remains one of the best expert guesses about the season’s hierarchy. As ESPN’s College Football analyst Bill Connelly notes, “While imperfect, preseason polls highlight roster strengths and coaching stability that statistically correlate with winning.”

The Flip Side: Why Caution Is Needed

Yet, the polls have inherent limitations. They rely significantly on subjective opinions and early observations. Key offseason developments—injuries, transfers, coaching changes—can alter a team’s prospects after the poll’s release, making early rankings outdated quickly.

Additionally, rankings can create unfair pressure. Programs rocket up the poll based on hype rather than proven results, while others are penalized for factors beyond their control. For example, teams like Washington State or Iowa State have occasionally found themselves underappreciated despite solid rosters.

Also important is the poll’s influence—whether consciously or not—on poll voters during the season, perpetuating early biases.

Looking Beyond the Numbers

Ultimately, I view the AP preseason Top 25 as a useful but imperfect tool. It should be taken with a grain of salt, appreciated more for generating conversation than delivering a definitive forecast.

The beauty of college football lies in unpredictability—the upsets on a chilly November night, the breakout stars nobody expected, and that mid-tier program’s unlikely push toward the playoffs. Preseason rankings can frame part of the story but never tell it all.

Fans, players, and coaches alike benefit most by embracing both the excitement and limits of these rankings. As the season unfolds, true performance writes its own narrative, reshaping opinions week by week.

In summary:

The AP preseason Top 25 offers insight, not prophecy. While it respects tradition and expert analysis, it also risks overlooking potential surprises and reinforcing biases. The lesson? Use the rankings as a starting point, but trust what happens on the field.

If you want to dive deeper into how preseason polls interact with actual season outcomes, check out Bill Connelly’s analysis on ESPN or the FiveThirtyEight’s data-driven approach to college football rankings.

The AP preseason poll is part tradition, part prediction, and all subject to the thrilling uncertainties that make college football great.

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